Charleroi 1-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gent at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charleroi host Gent at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Gent have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Gent have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gent away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 2.00 PPG, Gent 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 2, Gent 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–5 with Gent winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Gent trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 53% versus Gent 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 47% | Gent 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.09 xG and Gent 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.807 / defence 1.010 | Gent attack 0.979 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.225. Data: 32 Charleroi games / 32 Gent games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 31% | Gent 37%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Gent 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gent are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gent offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 40% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 31% | Draw 31% | Gent 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Charleroi 1.09 / Gent 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.807 / def 1.010 | Gent attack 0.979 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Gent (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Gent xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Gent kick off?
Charleroi vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Charleroi 1 - 0 Gent.
Where is Charleroi vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Gent part of?
Charleroi vs Gent is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 31% chance of winning, Gent a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Charleroi and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 1 | Gent 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Gent in?
Charleroi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Gent (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
31%
3.19
31%
3.21
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Gent xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.21 for Gent, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 13W 9D 16L from 38 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gent, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 10L across 38 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Gent, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gent by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 8W 5D 6L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gent's away record stands at 9W 4D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.89 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gent in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Gent
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Gent in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Gent have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.53 PPG; Gent away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gent go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Gent won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Gent specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
2
Draws
5
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Gent have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Charleroi 2-3 Gent.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 63%, Gent 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charleroi) and 42% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Gent?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Charleroi's games and 47% of Gent's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Charleroi's recent games and 42% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Gent tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gent in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Gent 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Gent 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.09 xG and Gent 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gent landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Gent attack 0.98 / defence 0.87, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 31% | Draw 31% | Gent 37%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, Gent 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Gent's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.