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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Club Brugge KV edge out Charleroi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge KV beat Charleroi 1-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.51 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.87 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.16 / defence 1.16 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.22 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 31% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge KV 46%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Club Brugge KV 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights