Charleroi vs Antwerp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charleroi face Antwerp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charleroi and Antwerp meet at Stade du Pays de Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Antwerp have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antwerp have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Charleroi's 2.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Antwerp's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charleroi have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Antwerp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Charleroi, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Antwerp — a 1D 3W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2026, ended 0–3 with Antwerp winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Charleroi and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Antwerp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 52% versus Antwerp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 44% | Antwerp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 2.89 xG and Antwerp 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.359 / defence 1.124 | Antwerp attack 0.819 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.370. Charleroi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Charleroi games / 40 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 71% | Draw 15% | Antwerp 14%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.41 | Draw 6.67 | Antwerp 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (71%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.89 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 70% | Antwerp 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 71% | Draw 15% | Antwerp 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 68% | xG Charleroi 2.89 / Antwerp 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.359 / def 1.124 | Antwerp attack 0.819 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Antwerp xG
68%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Antwerp kick off?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
Where is Charleroi vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Antwerp part of?
Charleroi vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 71% chance of winning, Antwerp a 14% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Charleroi and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Record (10 meetings): Charleroi 6W | Draws 1 | Antwerp 3W.
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in?
Charleroi (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Antwerp (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.36x the league average against Antwerp's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antwerp's attack (0.82x) against Charleroi's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
71%
1.41
15%
6.58
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
Charleroi xG
Total xG
4.16
1.26
Antwerp xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.58
15%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
6%
18.07
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
1%
130.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.26 for Antwerp, a combined total of 4.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Antwerp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charleroi come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 9D 19L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antwerp sit at 1.16 PPG from 50 outings (16W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.16 for Antwerp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Charleroi's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Antwerp have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (6W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.18 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Antwerp in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 16W 10D 24L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Antwerp away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; Antwerp away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Antwerp in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antwerp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
1
Draws
3
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 6, Antwerp have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Antwerp?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 64%, Antwerp 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charleroi) and 40% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Charleroi's recent matches and 36% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Charleroi's recent games and 40% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Antwerp tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.