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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 4, as Charleroi and Antwerp drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.21 xG and Antwerp 1.01 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Antwerp attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charleroi 38% | Draw 34% | Antwerp 28%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Antwerp 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Antwerp's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.43 PPG, Antwerp 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights