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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out Cercle Brugge 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zulte Waregem beat Cercle Brugge 2-3 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Relegation Group - 35, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.51 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.51 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.86 / defence 1.32 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 38% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 38%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 52%, Zulte Waregem 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.24 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights