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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 12, as Cercle Brugge and Zulte Waregem drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.92 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.67 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cercle Brugge fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.13 / defence 1.40 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 43% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 33%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 48%, Zulte Waregem 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights