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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.18 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.82 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.07 / defence 1.51 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.04 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 25% | Draw 23% | Union St. Gilloise 52%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 51%, Union St. Gilloise 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights