Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cercle Brugge's attack at 0.83x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (0.91x) against Cercle Brugge's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
36%
2.78
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.33
1.23
Union St. Gilloise xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
11.85
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.23 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.