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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as Cercle Brugge and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.41 xG and St. Truiden 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against St. Truiden attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 38% | Draw 31% | St. Truiden 32%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 49%, St. Truiden 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.27 PPG, St. Truiden 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights