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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St. Truiden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cercle Brugge beat St. Truiden 3-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Relegation Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.50 xG and St. Truiden 1.17 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against St. Truiden attack 1.05 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 43% | Draw 30% | St. Truiden 27%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 48%, St. Truiden 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

St. Truiden's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.32 PPG, St. Truiden 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights