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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Patro Eisden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cercle Brugge beat Patro Eisden 3-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Relegation Round, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.39 xG and Patro Eisden 0.95 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Patro Eisden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 45% | Draw 32% | Patro Eisden 23%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 48%, Patro Eisden 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Cercle Brugge winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights