🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as OH Leuven defy the odds to beat Cercle Brugge 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

OH Leuven beat Cercle Brugge 1-2 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.77 xG and OH Leuven 1.10 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OH Leuven outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.03 / defence 1.34 against OH Leuven attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 52% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 22%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a OH Leuven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 51%, OH Leuven 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

OH Leuven's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.12 PPG, OH Leuven 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights