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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kortrijk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cercle Brugge.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kortrijk beat Cercle Brugge 0-2 at Jan Breydelstadion, Relegation Round - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.46 xG and Kortrijk 1.12 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cercle Brugge fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Kortrijk outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against Kortrijk attack 1.01 / defence 1.24, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 43% | Draw 30% | Kortrijk 27%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 50%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kortrijk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.33 PPG, Kortrijk 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights