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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cercle Brugge defy the odds to beat Dender 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cercle Brugge beat Dender 2-1 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Relegation Group - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.15 xG and Dender 1.33 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cercle Brugge beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.85 / defence 1.34 against Dender attack 0.75 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 27% | Dender 41%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cercle Brugge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 54%, Dender 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.17 PPG, Dender 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights