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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Club Brugge KV cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cercle Brugge.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Club Brugge KV beat Cercle Brugge 1-3 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 0.97 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.21 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Club Brugge KV outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.76 / defence 0.86 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.27 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 27% | Draw 35% | Club Brugge KV 39%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 44%, Club Brugge KV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights