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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Cercle Brugge 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 2-3 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.61 xG and Charleroi 1.13 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Charleroi attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 47% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 25%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 50%, Charleroi 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights