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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cercle Brugge edge out Beerschot VA 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cercle Brugge beat Beerschot VA 2-1 at Jan Breydelstadion, Relegation Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.47 xG and Beerschot VA 0.76 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.78 / defence 1.00 against Beerschot VA attack 0.69 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 52% | Draw 31% | Beerschot VA 17%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 48%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Beerschot VA's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.28 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights