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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cercle Brugge.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Cercle Brugge 0-4 at Jan Breydel Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.07 xG and Antwerp 1.15 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cercle Brugge fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Antwerp outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.06 / defence 1.37 against Antwerp attack 0.71 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 32% | Draw 32% | Antwerp 36%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 48%, Antwerp 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Antwerp's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.10 PPG, Antwerp 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights