🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Beerschot VA.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Beerschot VA 0-4 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.02 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.47 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Beerschot VA fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.09 / defence 0.78, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 23% | Draw 33% | Union St. Gilloise 44%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 60%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights