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Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Beerschot VA 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 0-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Relegation Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.51 xG and St. Truiden 1.48 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Beerschot VA fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against St. Truiden attack 1.06 / defence 1.32, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 35%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 57%, St. Truiden 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

St. Truiden's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.23 PPG, St. Truiden 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights