Beerschot VA 0-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 36%, yet in-form St. Truiden provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and St. Truiden meet at Olympisch Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Beerschot VA's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
St. Truiden (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
St. Truiden arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, St. Truiden in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to St. Truiden, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with St. Truiden winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St. Truiden have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St. Truiden — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 52% versus St. Truiden 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 57% | St. Truiden 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.51 xG and St. Truiden 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.776 / defence 1.255 | St. Truiden attack 1.056 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.113. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Beerschot VA games / 60 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 35%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beerschot VA at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St. Truiden (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | St. Truiden 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Beerschot VA 1.51 / St. Truiden 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.776 / def 1.255 | St. Truiden attack 1.056 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.48
St. Truiden xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden kick off?
Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Beerschot VA 0 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden part of?
Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 36% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beerschot VA and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
Record (4 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 4W.
What form are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beerschot VA's attack rating (0.78) and St. Truiden's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.06x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
36%
2.74
28%
3.52
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.98
1.48
St. Truiden xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.48 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 20W 14D 26L from 60 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 17W 20D 23L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Beerschot VA against 1.18 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 10W 11D 9L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 4W 7D 19L across 30 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.32 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St. Truiden in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Current Season
St. Truiden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 17W 20D 23L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or St. Truiden away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.37 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
St. Truiden have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St. Truiden won 0-3 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
6
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 0, St. Truiden have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when St. Truiden 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and St. Truiden?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 53%, St. Truiden 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Beerschot VA) and 63% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 30% of games; St. Truiden in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play St. Truiden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Beerschot VA's games and 63% of St. Truiden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Beerschot VA's matches and 63% of St. Truiden's.
Do Beerschot VA and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat Beerschot VA 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat Beerschot VA 0-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Relegation Round - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.51 xG and St. Truiden 1.48 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Beerschot VA fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against St. Truiden attack 1.06 / defence 1.32, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 35%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual St. Truiden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 57%, St. Truiden 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St. Truiden's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.23 PPG, St. Truiden 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. St. Truiden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.