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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Patro Eisden 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA beat Patro Eisden 3-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Quarter-finals, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.54 xG and Patro Eisden 1.13 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Patro Eisden outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 1.00 / defence 1.00 against Patro Eisden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 47% | Draw 25% | Patro Eisden 28%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 61%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Patro Eisden's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Beerschot VA winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights