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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kortrijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA beat Kortrijk 2-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Relegation Round - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.44 xG and Kortrijk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kortrijk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.78 / defence 1.24 against Kortrijk attack 1.01 / defence 1.25, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 36% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 34%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 57%, Kortrijk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Kortrijk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.17 PPG, Kortrijk 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights