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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beerschot VA and Kortrijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA and Kortrijk finished level at 2-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.82 xG and Kortrijk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kortrijk outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Kortrijk attack 0.83 / defence 1.39, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 52% | Draw 29% | Kortrijk 18%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 60%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Kortrijk's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.40 PPG, Kortrijk 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights