Beerschot VA 1-2 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dender at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Dender encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dender make the trip to Olympisch Stadion to face Beerschot VA in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beerschot VA have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beerschot VA have posted 4W 3D 3L at Olympisch Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympisch Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Beerschot VA are significantly better at Olympisch Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Dender's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dender have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dender have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dender are 1.00 PPG clear of Beerschot VA in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Beerschot VA, 1 for Dender and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beerschot VA goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Dender goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 54% versus Dender 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 54% | Dender 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.72 xG and Dender 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.909 / defence 1.329 | Dender attack 1.172 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.149. Data: 5 Beerschot VA games / 5 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 22% | Dender 40%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Dender 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dender if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 40% | Dender 60%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 22% | Dender 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Beerschot VA 1.72 / Dender 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.909 / def 1.329 | Dender attack 1.172 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Dender (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Dender xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Dender kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Dender kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Dender?
Beerschot VA 1 - 2 Dender.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Dender part of?
Beerschot VA vs Dender is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 37% chance of winning, Dender a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Beerschot VA and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Dender?
Record (4 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 2 | Dender 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Dender in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Dender (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Dender's attack (1.17x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
37%
2.67
22%
4.50
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
3.51
1.79
Dender xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
7%
13.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.79 for Dender, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beerschot VA come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 6D 12L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dender sit at 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (17W 11D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Beerschot VA against 1.77 for Dender. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Beerschot VA's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Dender have taken 1.88 points per game from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.86 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender in 63%.
Defensively: Dender in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Early Season
Dender
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Dender in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 17W 6D 12L in their last 35 games (1.63 PPG), while Dender have gone 17W 11D 7L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Dender away?
Dender's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.53 PPG; Dender away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Dender in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beerschot VA have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dender — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
3
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, Dender have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Dender 0-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 47%, Dender 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Beerschot VA) and 59% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dender in 35%; Beerschot VA have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Dender?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Beerschot VA's games and 65% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 59% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Dender tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Dender in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dender edge out Beerschot VA 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Beerschot VA 1-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.72 xG and Dender 1.79 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.91 / defence 1.33 against Dender attack 1.17 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 37% | Draw 22% | Dender 40%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 54%, Dender 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.63 PPG, Dender 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.