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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cercle Brugge.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beerschot VA beat Cercle Brugge 4-2 at Olympisch Stadion, Relegation Round - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.23 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.79 / defence 1.24 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 34% | Draw 32% | Cercle Brugge 34%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 57%, Cercle Brugge 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beerschot VA's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beerschot VA 1.18 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights