AS Eupen 0-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Kortrijk travel to Stadion am Kehrweg to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Eupen — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. AS Eupen have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Eupen's home record at Stadion am Kehrweg: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kortrijk stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Kortrijk have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Eupen 0.70 PPG, Kortrijk 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for AS Eupen, 0 for Kortrijk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AS Eupen in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 55% versus Kortrijk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 58% | Kortrijk 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.24 xG and Kortrijk 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.840 / defence 1.077 | Kortrijk attack 0.908 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.393. Data: 40 AS Eupen games / 40 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 34% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 40%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kortrijk at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | Kortrijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 34% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG AS Eupen 1.24 / Kortrijk 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.840 / def 1.077 | Kortrijk attack 0.908 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Kortrijk xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kick off?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
AS Eupen 0 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk part of?
AS Eupen vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 34% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Eupen and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Record (2 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 2 | Kortrijk 0W.
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Kortrijk's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.80
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.60
1.36
Kortrijk xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.36 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 10W 8D 22L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Eupen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk's form line: 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Eupen on 0.95 PPG, Kortrijk on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Kortrijk away?
Kortrijk's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 0.95 PPG; Kortrijk away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Eupen's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Eupen
5
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 2, Kortrijk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when AS Eupen 1-0 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 60%, Kortrijk 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AS Eupen) and 40% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: AS Eupen have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Kortrijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of AS Eupen's games and 55% of Kortrijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AS Eupen's recent games and 40% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Kortrijk tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out AS Eupen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.24 xG and Kortrijk 1.36 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Eupen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Kortrijk attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 34% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 40%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 58%, Kortrijk 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kortrijk's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Eupen 0.95 PPG, Kortrijk 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.