AS Eupen 0-1 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gent at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Gent encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Eupen and Gent meet at Stadion am Kehrweg in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Eupen have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion am Kehrweg this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Gent's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Gent are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AS Eupen 0W, Gent 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Gent winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AS Eupen half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gent half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 58% versus Gent 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 58% | Gent 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 0.73 xG and Gent 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.723 / defence 1.324 | Gent attack 0.767 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.464. AS Eupen's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 AS Eupen games / 26 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 18% | Draw 27% | Gent 55%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Gent 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Gent (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gent as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 50% | Gent 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion am Kehrweg • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 18% | Draw 27% | Gent 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG AS Eupen 0.73 / Gent 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.723 / def 1.324 | Gent attack 0.767 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Gent (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Gent xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Gent kick off?
AS Eupen vs Gent kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Gent?
AS Eupen 0 - 1 Gent.
Where is AS Eupen vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Stadion am Kehrweg.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Gent part of?
AS Eupen vs Gent is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 18% chance of winning, Gent a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gent the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AS Eupen and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Gent?
Record (1 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 0 | Gent 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and Gent in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Gent (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Eupen's attack at 0.72x the league average against Gent's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gent's attack (0.77x) against AS Eupen's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gent Win
18%
5.59
27%
3.70
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.21
1.49
Gent xG
5.59
18%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
4%
24.72
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 16.3 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.49 for Gent, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Gent?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 7W 6D 13L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gent's form line: 11W 7D 8L from 26 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gent are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
On the road, Gent have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Eupen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.46 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Gent in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 7W 6D 13L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Gent have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Gent away?
Gent's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.00 PPG; Gent away: 1.33 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Gent in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Gent have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gent won 0-4 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Eupen have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gent — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
0
Draws
6
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Gent?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Gent have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when AS Eupen 0-2 Gent.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Gent?
Gent have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Gent see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 58%, Gent 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AS Eupen) and 33% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Gent in 42%; AS Eupen have failed to score in 33% of games; Gent in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 33% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AS Eupen's recent games and 33% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Eupen and Gent tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gent in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gent edge out AS Eupen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent beat AS Eupen 0-1 at Stadion am Kehrweg, Regular Season - 27, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 0.73 xG and Gent 1.49 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.72 / defence 1.32 against Gent attack 0.77 / defence 0.91, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 18% | Draw 27% | Gent 55%, with Gent to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 58%, Gent 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gent's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Gent arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Eupen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.