🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Zulte Waregem 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Zulte Waregem 2-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.68 xG and Zulte Waregem 0.98 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.16 / defence 1.02 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 54% | Draw 24% | Zulte Waregem 22%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 46%, Zulte Waregem 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Zulte Waregem's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights