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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 1-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.45 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.24 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 40% | Draw 30% | Union St. Gilloise 31%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 52%, Union St. Gilloise 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights