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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Antwerp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union St. Gilloise beat Antwerp 0-4 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 9, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.31 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.46 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Union St. Gilloise outscored their 1.46 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 32% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 39%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 53%, Union St. Gilloise 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights