Antwerp 6-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees St. Truiden travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antwerp — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St. Truiden's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Antwerp 0.90 PPG, St. Truiden 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Antwerp, 1 for St. Truiden and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
St. Truiden trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 45% versus St. Truiden 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 55% | St. Truiden 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.59 xG and St. Truiden 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.036 / defence 1.018 | St. Truiden attack 0.823 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.226. Data: 32 Antwerp games / 32 St. Truiden games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 49% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 23%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | St. Truiden 4.35. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | St. Truiden 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 49% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Antwerp 1.59 / St. Truiden 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.036 / def 1.018 | St. Truiden attack 0.823 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.03
St. Truiden xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs St. Truiden kick off?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Antwerp 6 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Antwerp vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs St. Truiden part of?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 49% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Antwerp and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Record (6 meetings): Antwerp 3W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in?
Antwerp (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.59
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.62
1.03
St. Truiden xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
5%
21.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Antwerp and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.03 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 17W 10D 15L from 42 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 15L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.45 PPG, St. Truiden on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 3W 8D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.19 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
St. Truiden
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 17W 10D 15L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 13W 14D 15L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or St. Truiden away?
Antwerp's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.67 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Antwerp or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 52%, St. Truiden 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Antwerp) and 52% (St. Truiden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; St. Truiden in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Antwerp's recent matches and 57% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Antwerp's matches and 52% of St. Truiden's.
Do Antwerp and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 6-1 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat St. Truiden 6-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.59 xG and St. Truiden 1.03 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against St. Truiden attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 49% | Draw 28% | St. Truiden 23%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 55%, St. Truiden 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.45 PPG, St. Truiden 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.