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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RAAL La Louvière.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat RAAL La Louvière 3-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.36 xG and RAAL La Louvière 0.97 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 44% | Draw 30% | RAAL La Louvière 25%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 43%, RAAL La Louvière 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights