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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat OH Leuven 2-0 at Bosuilstadion, Conference League Group - 33, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.32 xG and OH Leuven 1.16 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. OH Leuven landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against OH Leuven attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 40% | Draw 27% | OH Leuven 33%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 46%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

OH Leuven's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.21 PPG, OH Leuven 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights