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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over OH Leuven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat OH Leuven 3-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.98 xG and OH Leuven 0.87 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against OH Leuven attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 61% | Draw 25% | OH Leuven 14%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 50%, OH Leuven 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

OH Leuven's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.29 PPG, OH Leuven 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. OH Leuven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights