🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Antwerp and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 27, as Antwerp and OH Leuven drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.71 xG and OH Leuven 0.78 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. OH Leuven outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.23 / defence 1.03 against OH Leuven attack 0.67 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 58% | Draw 28% | OH Leuven 14%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 54%, OH Leuven 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

OH Leuven's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.53 PPG, OH Leuven 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antwerp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights