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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out KVC Westerlo 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat KVC Westerlo 3-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.21 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.20 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. KVC Westerlo outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.04 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 58% | Draw 24% | KVC Westerlo 18%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 54%, KVC Westerlo 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

KVC Westerlo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights