Antwerp 0-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Kortrijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bosuilstadion plays host to Antwerp versus Kortrijk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 1 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kortrijk have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Kortrijk are the stronger side — 3.00 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.00 xG and Kortrijk 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.969 / defence 1.150 | Kortrijk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.476. Data: 1 Antwerp games / 1 Kortrijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 22% | Draw 34% | Kortrijk 43%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Kortrijk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 22% | Draw 34% | Kortrijk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Antwerp 1.00 / Kortrijk 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.969 / def 1.150 | Kortrijk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Kortrijk xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Kortrijk kick off?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Antwerp 0 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Antwerp vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Kortrijk part of?
Antwerp vs Kortrijk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 22% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Antwerp and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in?
Antwerp (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Kortrijk (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (0.97) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kortrijk's attack (0.85x) against Antwerp's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
22%
4.45
34%
2.94
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.45
1.44
Kortrijk xG
4.45
22%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
5%
18.82
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.44 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Antwerp have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kortrijk's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Kortrijk are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antwerp.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Antwerp's scoring rate against Kortrijk's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Kortrijk in 0%.
Defensively: Kortrijk in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
Kortrijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Antwerp or Kortrijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Kortrijk in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Antwerp go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 6-0 on 11 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kortrijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Antwerp
0
Draws
2
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 6, Kortrijk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Antwerp 2-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Kortrijk?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Antwerp's recent matches and 0% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Antwerp's recent games and 0% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Antwerp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Antwerp 0-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.00 xG and Kortrijk 1.44 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Kortrijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 22% | Draw 34% | Kortrijk 43%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 100%, Kortrijk 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Kortrijk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antwerp managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kortrijk managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.