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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Kortrijk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Kortrijk 2-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.32 xG and Kortrijk 0.97 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 66% | Draw 22% | Kortrijk 12%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 56%, Kortrijk 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Kortrijk's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights