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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gent defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat Antwerp 1-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.73 xG and Gent 1.04 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gent outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against Gent attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 52% | Draw 27% | Gent 21%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Gent win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Gent 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Gent's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.36 PPG, Gent 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Gent (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights