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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gent defy the odds to beat Antwerp 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gent beat Antwerp 0-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.61 xG and Gent 1.12 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Antwerp fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.24 / defence 1.12 against Gent attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 46% | Draw 30% | Gent 24%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Gent win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 54%, Gent 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gent's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.51 PPG, Gent 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gent win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Gent (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights