Antwerp 4-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.57 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antwerp's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Bosuilstadion this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genk have collected 2.00 PPG across 7 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 road games this term (2.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.57 PPG for Antwerp against 2.00 for Genk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antwerp have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Genk in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Genk — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antwerp 71% and Genk 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 57% | Genk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.23 xG and Genk 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.947 / defence 1.209 | Genk attack 0.894 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.482. Data: 7 Antwerp games / 7 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 29% | Draw 25% | Genk 46%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Genk 2.17. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 67% | Genk 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 29% | Draw 25% | Genk 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Antwerp 1.23 / Genk 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.947 / def 1.209 | Genk attack 0.894 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Genk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Genk xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Genk kick off?
Antwerp vs Genk kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Antwerp 4 - 2 Genk.
Where is Antwerp vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Genk part of?
Antwerp vs Genk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 29% chance of winning, Genk a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Antwerp and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Genk in?
Antwerp (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (0.95) and Genk's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (0.89x) against Antwerp's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
29%
3.40
25%
4.06
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.83
1.60
Genk xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.60 for Genk, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Antwerp heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Genk in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
Genk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Genk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Genk have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.33 PPG; Genk away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
4
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Genk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Genk 0-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Antwerp, 100% for Genk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Antwerp and 67% for Genk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Antwerp's games and 100% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Antwerp's matches and 67% of Genk's.
Do Antwerp and Genk tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Genk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Genk 4-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.23 xG and Genk 1.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Genk attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 29% | Draw 25% | Genk 46%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 57%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.57. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Genk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.