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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Genk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Genk 3-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.21 xG and Genk 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Genk attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 33% | Draw 27% | Genk 40%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 46%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Genk's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights