Antwerp 2-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genk make the trip to Bosuilstadion to face Antwerp in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Antwerp's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Bosuilstadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bosuilstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Bosuilstadion this season.
Genk have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Genk's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Antwerp. A 0.90 PPG lead over Genk (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Genk — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 44% versus Genk 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 47% | Genk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.70 xG and Genk 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.056 / defence 0.638 | Genk attack 1.136 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.378. Antwerp's defence rating of 0.638 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Antwerp games / 68 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 53% | Draw 26% | Genk 21%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Genk 4.76. Antwerp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antwerp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 30% | Genk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 53% | Draw 26% | Genk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Antwerp 1.70 / Genk 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.056 / def 0.638 | Genk attack 1.136 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Genk xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Genk kick off?
Antwerp vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Antwerp 2 - 1 Genk.
Where is Antwerp vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Genk part of?
Antwerp vs Genk is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 53% chance of winning, Genk a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antwerp and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Genk in?
Antwerp (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Genk (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Antwerp's attack rating (1.06) and Genk's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.14x) against Antwerp's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.86
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.70
1.00
Genk xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
4%
25.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.00 for Genk, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antwerp's recent record stands at 43W 13D 19L from 75 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 42W 14D 19L across 75 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Antwerp against 1.87 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 22W 7D 8L from 37 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 15W 10D 12L across 37 trips, a 1.49 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antwerp are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.09 scored and 1.24 conceded. Genk's attacking output running into Antwerp's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 61%.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Genk in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 43W 13D 19L in their last 75 games (1.89 PPG), while Genk have gone 42W 14D 19L in their last 75 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Genk away?
Antwerp's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.97 PPG; Genk away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Genk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
4
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Genk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Genk 0-0 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 46%, Genk 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 60% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Antwerp's games and 65% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antwerp's matches and 60% of Genk's.
Do Antwerp and Genk tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Genk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antwerp edge out Genk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Genk 2-1 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.70 xG and Genk 1.00 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.06 / defence 0.64 against Genk attack 1.14 / defence 0.97, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 53% | Draw 26% | Genk 21%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Genk 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.89 PPG, Genk 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.