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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Dender defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dender beat Antwerp 1-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.84 xG and Dender 1.00 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antwerp fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dender outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Dender attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 56% | Draw 25% | Dender 19%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Dender win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 46%, Dender 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Dender's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.22 PPG, Dender 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights