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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Antwerp defy the odds to beat Club Brugge KV 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antwerp beat Club Brugge KV 2-1 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.49 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.71 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.24 / defence 1.11 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.40 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 31% | Draw 29% | Club Brugge KV 40%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Antwerp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 54%, Club Brugge KV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Club Brugge KV's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Club Brugge KV arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.51. Form was overturned, with Antwerp winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights