Antwerp vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antwerp face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Charleroi, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charleroi have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 46% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 46% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.00 xG and Charleroi 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 0.947 / defence 1.350 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / defence 0.670. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.301. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.670 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Antwerp games / 38 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 20% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 57%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Charleroi 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Antwerp 50% | Charleroi 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 20% | Draw 23% | Charleroi 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Antwerp 1.00 / Charleroi 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 0.947 / def 1.350 | Charleroi attack 1.044 / def 0.670 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Charleroi xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 20% chance of winning, Charleroi a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Antwerp 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 7W.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.04x) against Antwerp's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
20%
4.90
23%
4.40
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.84
1.83
Charleroi xG
4.90
20%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
3%
30.71
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.83 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 15W 10D 23L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 18L across 48 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Antwerp against 1.50 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 12W 3D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.33 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Charleroi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 58%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 38% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Antwerp's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antwerp's recent games and 38% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.