Antwerp vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charleroi (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antwerp face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antwerp have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Charleroi arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Charleroi, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Charleroi winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Charleroi have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 46% versus Charleroi 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 46% | Charleroi 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.34 xG and Charleroi 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.045 / defence 1.408 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.397. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Antwerp games / 34 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 24% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 55%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | Charleroi 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 50% | Charleroi 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 24% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Antwerp 1.34 / Charleroi 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.045 / def 1.408 | Charleroi attack 1.060 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Charleroi xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Bosuilstadion.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 24% chance of winning, Charleroi a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Antwerp 2W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 7W.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.06x) against Antwerp's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
24%
4.12
21%
4.75
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.42
2.08
Charleroi xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
12%
8.04
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
3%
33.11
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Antwerp and 2.08 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 15W 10D 19L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Antwerp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 17L across 44 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Antwerp against 1.43 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 9W 4D 9L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.34 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 1.41 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 59%, Charleroi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Antwerp) and 41% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Antwerp's recent matches and 46% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Antwerp's recent games and 41% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.