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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Charleroi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antwerp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Antwerp 0-2 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.61 xG and Charleroi 1.09 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Charleroi outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 49% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 26%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Charleroi's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.32 PPG, Charleroi 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights