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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charleroi beat Antwerp 1-2 at Bosuilstadion, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.71 xG and Charleroi 1.27 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.10 / defence 1.07 against Charleroi attack 1.07 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 46% | Draw 27% | Charleroi 27%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 54%, Charleroi 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Charleroi's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.39 PPG, Charleroi 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights