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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antwerp and Cercle Brugge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 10, as Antwerp and Cercle Brugge drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.15 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.01 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.13 / defence 1.04 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.82 / defence 0.76, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antwerp 36% | Draw 35% | Cercle Brugge 29%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 47%, Cercle Brugge 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antwerp's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Cercle Brugge's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.26 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights